Title:
Air traffic controllers don´t roll dice - or do they? - Systemic challenges and tools for robust decision-making in probabilistic air traffic
Fluglotsen würfeln nicht - oder doch? - Systemische Herausforderungen und Werkzeuge
für robuste Entscheidungen im probabilistisch geprägten Luftverkehr
Abstract:
This article illustrates why operational air traffic control in the vicinity of airports and with mixed runway use for takeoffs and landings must be understood as a system driven by variance. Three practical scenarios—sequencing on final approach, mixed-mode operation, and communication blocking on downwind—demonstrate how small variations in reaction, implementation, and communication times can accumulate in those crucial seconds when capacity and safety are determined. Sequence effects, the stochastic uncertainty in takeoff implementations (reaction runway occupancy time), and temporarily blocked radio channels can have emergent effects on separation margins, remaining flight distances, and landing rates—even under otherwise stable conditions. From this diagnosis, the work derives a shift in perspective: from point values to probability spaces. Safety margins are managed as risk budgets along the chain of Perceiving/Deciding - Transmitting/Confirming - Understanding/Implementing; gates replace rigid points in time; quantiles are operationally more significant than averages. This leads to concrete design recommendations for the next generation of assistance: Quantiles based on historical data, new information sources, and systemic considerations should be made visible in existing tools; concise, reasoned recommendations should be provided; media breaks should be reduced (e.g., Flight Management System (FMS)-loadable clearances); and recommendations should be calibrated. This allows the air traffic controller to remain a "supervisory decision maker" but to operate more robustly because decisions are probabilistically prepared and transparently explainable.
Event:
Deutscher Luft- und Raumfahrtkongress 2025, Augsburg
Location, Year:
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Luft- und Raumfahrt - Lilienthal-Oberth e.V., Bonn, 2025
Format:
21,0 x 29,7 cm, 18 Pages
Descriptors:
EN: Determinism, probabilistics
Citation:
Buxbaum, J. (2025): Fluglotsen würfeln nicht - oder doch? - Systemische Herausforderungen und Werkzeuge
für robuste Entscheidungen im probabilistisch geprägten Luftverkehr. DGLR Published Conference Papers. Volume 4. (2026). ISSN: 2941-3451. Deutsche Gesellschaft für Luft- und Raumfahrt - Lilienthal-Oberth e.V.. (Text). https://doi.org/10.25967/650016. urn:nbn:de:101:1-2511071403563.281963938397.
Publishing Date:
07.11.2025